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For three years, auto insurance rate filings told one story: up. In 2026, that story is splitting in two. The same year State Farm filed a 6.2% decrease for about four million California drivers, Kemper filed a 7% increase in the same state. Your renewal now depends less on the market than on the name at the top of your policy.
Below is what the car insurance rate changes 2026 filing season actually shows, drawn from rate filings approved by state insurance departments through mid-2026.
What Car Insurance Rate Changes 2026 Filings Show
Two of the country’s biggest carriers are cutting, and the totals are large. State Farm‘s five-state round of decreases covers about 7.5 million policyholders and hands back roughly $652 million in annual premium. Progressive‘s eight-state round covers another 3.5 million policyholders and returns about $234 million.
Add those together and nearly 11 million drivers are getting some rate back this cycle, about $886 million in all. At the same time, Kemper, Bristol West, and parts of GEICO‘s book are filing increases. Both stories are true at once, and that’s what makes 2026 different.
These are filed and approved changes, not projections or marketing claims. Each one sits in SERFF, the public system state regulators use to track rate filings, with its own tracking number. The tables and totals below come straight from those records.
State Farm and Progressive Are Giving Rate Back
The two largest auto insurers in the country are both cutting. State Farm filed decreases across its biggest books this cycle, led by California for about 4 million policyholders. Progressive filed its own round across eight states, from Ohio to Iowa. The full list, with the dates each cut starts reaching renewals:
| CARRIER | STATE | FILED CHANGE | POLICYHOLDERS | RENEWALS START |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Farm | Mississippi | -9.1% | 613,850 | Jan 1, 2026 |
| State Farm | Colorado | -7.9% | 1,203,578 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| State Farm | Kansas | -7.3% | 600,480 | June 14, 2026 |
| State Farm | California | -6.2% | 4,046,854 | May 8, 2026 |
| State Farm | Indiana | -4.1% | 999,199 | April 15, 2026 |
| Progressive | Maryland | -6.3% | 283,914 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Progressive | Arkansas | -6.1% | 203,937 | April 30, 2026 |
| Progressive | Colorado | -5.4% | 476,036 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Progressive | Nebraska | -5.4% | 178,519 | Nov 28, 2025 |
| Progressive | Illinois | -5.0% | 762,218 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Progressive | Iowa | -4.3% | 364,805 | May 19, 2026 |
| Progressive | Tennessee | -4.3% | 444,034 | July 3, 2026 |
| Progressive | Ohio | -3.5% | 809,441 | Dec 19, 2025 |
Source: SERFF rate filing bundles SFMA-134690237 (State Farm, five states) and PRGS-134785395 (Progressive, eight states), state insurance department records.
The per-driver math is worth spelling out. State Farm’s California cut alone returns about $367 million across those 4 million policies, which works out to roughly $91 per policy per year. Across all five State Farm states the average runs about $87, and across Progressive’s eight states it’s about $66.
A decrease on a multi-million-policy book is not a marketing gesture. It means the carrier’s loss ratio recovered faster than it projected when it filed the steep increases of 2023 and 2024, and state regulators agreed the lower rate is justified. The carriers whose books stabilized first are the ones giving money back first.
GEICO Is Playing Both Sides of the Split
GEICO shows why the cutting and the hiking can come from the same company. It filed increases in Texas, Arizona, and Maryland this cycle. The headline Texas filing, GECC-134522000, raises rates 5.2% on 69,067 policies, which works out to about $109 per policy on the filing’s own figures.
In New Jersey, the same company filed a 3.3% decrease covering 641,609 policyholders, worth about $85 million a year once renewals start on August 17, 2026. One carrier, two directions, depending on how its claims have run in each state. Your ZIP code, not your loyalty, decides which side you’re on.
The dates tell their own story. GEICO’s Texas increase has been reaching renewals since mid-2025, while its New Jersey cut doesn’t land until late summer 2026. A national brand’s price is really fifty separate state prices moving on fifty separate clocks.
Kemper, Bristol West, and the Non-Standard Lag
Kemper filed a 7% increase in California on roughly 517,000 policies, the same state where State Farm is cutting. Farmers, through its Bristol West non-standard unit, filed a 12% increase in Arizona. Those two filings anchor the hike side of this year’s split.
California is the sharpest illustration. One of the state’s biggest auto insurers is cutting 6.2% while Kemper raises 7% in the same market, in the same cycle. Two drivers on the same street can open renewal envelopes pointing in opposite directions.
The pattern is not random. Non-standard carriers, the ones that write coverage for drivers with a recent claim, a lapse, or a thinner credit history, tend to lag the standard market on the way down because their claim costs run higher and recover more slowly. A driver insured with one of these carriers can see an increase in the exact same month a neighbor with a standard carrier sees a cut.
Why the Market Split This Year
The split traces back to the steep increases of 2023 and 2024. Carriers raised rates hard in those years to catch up with repair costs and claim severity, and some books recovered faster than others. The carriers that got healthy first are now competing on price, while the ones still absorbing heavy claims keep filing increases.
Regulators sit in the middle of that process. A cut moves through review quickly because nobody objects to drivers paying less. An increase draws scrutiny, which is part of why this year’s hikes cluster among carriers that can document heavy losses, like non-standard books.
For drivers, the practical effect is a wider spread between the best and worst quote for the same coverage. That spread is exactly what the car insurance rate changes 2026 cycle rewards you for checking.
How a Filed Change Reaches Your Bill
A carrier files its proposed change with the state insurance department through SERFF. The state reviews it, and the filing lists one effective date for new business and another for renewals. Nothing on your bill changes until your own policy renews on or after that renewal date.
That’s why the dates in the table above matter. Progressive’s Nebraska, Colorado, and Ohio cuts have been reaching renewals since late 2025, while State Farm’s Kansas cut doesn’t start until June 14, 2026. Two drivers with the same carrier can sit months apart on the same change just because their policies renew in different seasons.
The renewal notice is where a filed average becomes your number. A filed percentage is spread across an entire book of business, so your own change can land higher or lower depending on your record, your car, and your coverage. Read the notice line by line before it turns into an automatic payment.
What the Split Means for Your Renewal
The takeaway is simple and it favors shopping. In a market moving in one direction, comparing carriers saves a predictable amount. In a market splitting in two, the gap between the carrier cutting your rate and the carrier raising it can be the widest it has been in years.
If your renewal went up in 2026, that is no longer evidence that everyone went up. It may mean your carrier is on the lagging side of this split while a competitor is filing decreases for the same coverage. The only way to know is to pull quotes.
Timing matters too. The cuts in the table reach renewals on a rolling basis through mid-2026 and beyond, so a quote pulled today may not yet reflect a decrease that takes effect next month. If a carrier on the cut list quotes you high, it can be worth re-quoting after its effective date passes.
The split also rewards patience. A carrier raising rates this cycle may file a decrease the next one, and the reverse is just as true. No single quote captures where a carrier will sit six months from now. That is why the drivers who come out ahead treat rate shopping as a habit, not a one-time errand.
How to Save on Insurance
Five moves that fit this split:
- Quote three to five carriers at renewal, and include at least one of the carriers filing decreases this cycle, such as State Farm or Progressive. The carriers cutting rates are the ones most likely to undercut your current premium right now.
- If your renewal rose, check whether your carrier writes non-standard coverage. A single clean year may move you back into standard-market pricing.
- Hold coverage identical when you compare. A lower quote with thinner limits is not a real saving.
- Re-shop every renewal. The carrier cutting today may file an increase next cycle, and the split can flip.
- Track the filings in your state with the national rate tracker before you accept any renewal.
The split between carriers raising and cutting rates is exactly why a single quote is rarely enough this year. One company can file a double-digit increase in your state while a direct competitor files a decrease, so the best deal moves from carrier to carrier each cycle. Drivers who lock in with one insurer and stop comparing tend to ride every increase, while those who re-shop at each renewal can follow the cuts as they land. Treat the tracker as your early warning and let the filings, not habit, decide where you place your coverage.
Related Guides
Sources Used
- SERFF rate filing bundles SFMA-134690237 (State Farm, five states) and PRGS-134785395 (Progressive, eight states), state insurance department records, accessed June 2026
- SERFF filings GECC-134522000 (GEICO Texas) and GECC-134961490 (GEICO New Jersey)
- NAIC Auto Insurance Database Report
- Insurance Information Institute: Auto Insurance Facts and Statistics